Posted by Matt and Ryan - May 19, 2008, 2:00 p.m.

We're a little more than a quarter through the baseball season. Believe it or not, both Chicago teams reside in first place. This is not normal. Such an occurrence calls for an evaluation of what's gone right, and what lurking troubles could cause things to go horribly wrong.

We'll start with the red-hot Cubs, fresh off a delicious 8-2 home stand.

What's going right:
Lately? Just about everything. Bob Brenly referred to Alfonso Soriano as the hottest hitter on the planet and it wasn't even hyperbole. Remarkably, all the so-called fans who had taken to booing Soriano with great regularity have quieted down, as Rick Morrissey noted in his column today.

(Now, I've been as critical of Soriano in the past as anyone else. But you don't boo your own team except under a few select extenuating circumstances that I will outline at a later date. We need to do something. Wrigley is getting out of hand.)

Soriano still isn't exactly patient in the leadoff spot (and he won't hit like this forever), but the Cubs seem to have enough patience and talent up and down their lineup to be able to live with him leading off. The heart of the lineup with Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, The Fukudominator and Geovany Soto is downright scary. Ryan Theriot is having a fantastic year. So is Mark DeRosa. Ronny Cedeno would be a regular starter if not for the two previous sentences. The bullpen is starting to come together; Carlos Marmol's giving up a home run the other day notwithstanding (it's going to happen once in a while).


What troubles await:
Some of their hitting has to cool off? Doesn't it? I'll be surprised if Theriot and DeRosa are both able to post an OBP above .400 all year. Soto still seems like he might be too good to be true—highly touted Cubs prospects never come in and perform like they're supposed to … somewhere Felix Pie is slowly slinking back into the corner of the room. But Lee has already hit a serious slowdown and Ramirez still hasn't hit one of his uber-hot stretches, so maybe the Cubs' lineup is really good and I should stop worrying. Which I won't.

The rotation has to be a little troubling as well. Ryan Dempster isn't likely to maintain an ERA under 2.50 all year. And Carlos Zambrano has been known to go through bad stretches as well. If those two start to have problems things could go south quickly.

But let's be honest. It's the Cubs. If/when the proverbial poop hits the also proverbial fan, it isn't going to be something predicted by some idiot blogger (me) on a sleepy May afternoon. It will be something entirely unforeseen. Big Z breaks his pitching hand trying to crack a bat over his knee. Fukudome is deported. Ramirez decides baseball is no longer in his heart … what he really wants to do is … DANCE!

It could be anything. I've had the "is it okay to get excited yet" conversation with five or six different Cubs fan friends in the past week. Things have been too good lately. We all sense the slap upside the head coming.

Predictions:
Every objective means of evaluation says the Cubs should win the division fairly easily. Even ESPN numbers guru and run differential analyzer extraordinaire Rob Neyer says so. Which, honestly, terrifies me. I could see the Cubs with a seven-game lead in September falling apart while the Cardinals win 15 in a row and all of the Baseball Tonight crew dance jubilantly around the Cubs rotting, sinking corpse with a certain moment from the 2003 NLCS playing on a continuous loop in the background.

So … with tremendous reservation … I meekly suggest that the Cubs will win the division. I'm not prepared to say anything beyond that.

Lets not forget about the South Siders who are coming off a 7-3 west coast trip, a trip that normally does not conclude with what I imagine was a raucous, jubilant flight back home, and a 5 game win streak.  Hot tamale it feels good to write 5 game win streak.

What's going right:
Actually, other than the continued dominance of the pitching staff and Carlos Quentin’s quest to win the American League homerun crown, not a whole heck of a lot. 

I’d say the fact that this team sits 1.5 games in front of our Central Division foes is quite a feat when you take a look at the batting averages of some of the core players:

Nick Swisher - .213
Orlando Cabrera - .225
Jim Thome - .203
Paul Konerko - .212
Juan Uribe - .198

For the first month of the season those first four players represented the exact order at the top of the lineup, not exactly striking fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.  All inadequacies aside thanks to the otherworldly production of Carlos Quentin, and resurgent seasons from AJ Pierzynski and Jermaine Dye the Sox find themselves very much in the hunt for the division crown.

The bullpen has done a nice little 180 from last year’s debacle when if our starters didn’t carry us straight up to Bobby Jenks it was pretty much a guaranteed victory for the opponent.  Only two members of the pen find their ERA above 4.0 at this point and Octavio Dotel at 4.08 and Matt Thornton at 4.02 are just a shade on the wrong side.  Now let us never speak of Andrew Sisco, Mike Macdougal, or David Aardsma again.

What troubles await:
I’m still not entirely convinced that John Danks and Gavin Floyed can maintain their current pace for the whole season.  They are making the first turn with ERAs of 2.94 and 2.92 respectively and both are still very young and lack a proven track record.  Despite his two near no-hitters I’m still wary of relying so heavily on a pitcher named Gavin.  I just can’t shake it, I need more time.

Lineup controversy?  I can only imagine with Brian Anderson’s improved play and proven worth to the team as a legit 5 tool player that Ozzie is contemplating getting him more time in CF.  How long can Jim Thome and Paul Konerko continue to be blackholes in the lineup?

I realize that Thome is a future Hall of Famer and that Pauley Walnuts is a high priced veteran and leader of the clubhouse but something’s gotta give.  Thome strikes out as often as Juan Uribe adjusts his crotch throughout the course of a game and let me be the first to say that it’s an unacceptable amount.

The Sox have been pretty lucky on the injury front with nothing major happening yet but we all know that Joe Crede’s back is made of tinker toys and that Jermaine Dye’s quad or hamstring seems to get tweaked every year for a couple of weeks.  The injury bug is nearly impossible to avoid for an entire season much like it’s impossible to get through a week without someone asking me about American Idol. 

I’m of the opinion that those who watch American Idol should wear a pin stating just that so people can conduct conversations about it without the involvement of those of us who don’t care.  There, that’s off my chest.

Predictions:
Since I am a completely subjective Sox fan and feel that my contributions in supporting them will help lead them to a triumphant division crown title I am going to go ahead and say it – the Chicago White Sox will win the American League Central Division.

Now, this is not far fetched whatsoever.  As Matt pointed out previously, the Cubs can’t hit as well as they are currently doing so forever right?  Well how about the opposite being true for the Sox.  We can’t have 4 players flirting with the Mendoza line (.200) much longer can we?  Well, maybe Juan Uribe but he doesn’t count because he swings at pitches that hit the dirt 4 feet in front of the plate.  The other listed players will likely find their rhythm and start producing how they have historically through their careers. 

If the pitching stays as strong as it’s been then increased offensive production should propel the Sox into a more comfortable lead over the Indians.  However, as much as concentrating just on the Sox shortcomings should get us over the hump I’m not convinced the Indians are merely a .500 team.  The Central Division in recent years has had some very exciting August and September months and I trust that this season will be no different with intense competition down the stretch.

I also predict that I will shatter my own personal single season game attendance record and that through the course of the season I will eat roughly 107 tubed meats (whether they be polish sausages or hotdogs). 

Lastly, I predict that the Sox will win the season series against the Cubs, by a count of 4 games to 2.  That’s right kids, it’s time to start thinking Windy City Classic.

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I'll keep it simple. The Sox with the WS in game 7 on a Thome bunt. Versus the Cubs. Now, back to my nifty pile of pills which help me focus ... hey! Is that a pony?

Enjoy the ride guys while you can. Just a note, according to my fellow Sox fan, BigBadBill, the Cubs and Sox have not both been in first since 1906.

So we've already seen something that hasn't occurred in more than 100 years.

RYAN SAYS:

All of Chicago should be enjoying the ride!

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