Thursday, May 8, 2008 -- 5:40 p.m. -- at my desk

So have you all heard about this big deal between Sprint and Clearwire that's going to bring WiMax to the U.S. in a big rollout?

Time Warner, Google and others are partnering in this venture, and on the surface, it sounds like mobile devices on Sprint's network could reach unprecedented speeds far ahead of other carriers.

Then I'm reading the Chicago Tribune's Web site and I see my colleague Eric Benderoff writing about Google being the big winner in this whole thing.

Eric brings up some great points, or as he called it ... reading between the lines:

* Starting as soon as this summer but no later than early fall, Sprint will be the first U.S. home to an emerging crop of Google’s Android-based phones.

* Might we soon see the Android platform on a cool touch-screen phone that will sprint like a rabbit past a turtle, such as the 3G-enabled iPhone coming soon to Apple and AT&T stores?

Not that Eric's words need translated, but his question is a good one ... will the 3G iPhone come out in June and be amazing and fast, only to be leapfrogged by (my word: cheaper) Android phones that run on a much faster and newer network? Will there be another touchscreen phone that actually gives Apple a run for it's money?

I'm not one to normally worry about Apple ... Apple knows what it has to do to stay on top of a game it started on June 29, 2007. But one has to hope that Apple has more than a 3G iPhone up its sleeve, especially since the technology which was once so amazing seems to pale in comparison to what Sprint, Clearwire and Google are planning.

I do hope to hear your comments ... check out Eric's writeup ... he's covering the whole WiMax thing pretty nicely.

Thanks for calling.

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remember that a simple adapter could likely retrofit the iPhone to have wimax. Perhaps some sort if dongle that could
go into the 30 pin outlet.

SCOTT'S REPLY: But do we know that for sure? I mean, that's great if it can work like that.

I'm not a fierce technical person, but here in Ireland we have both 3G and Wimax on the go, and 3G seems to have better coverage and speeds than Wimax. HSDPA currently offers up to 3.6 Mbps (effectively averaging 2 Mbps), expected to increase to 7.2 Mbps by the end of 2008 and doubling again to 14.4 Mbps sometime within a few years apparently. O2 provides HSDPA coverage over a surprisingly wide area of rural Ireland. Meanwhile companies like Irish Broadband offer Wimax for fixed home connections at 2 or 3 Mbps with much narrower coverage limited to urban centres. I know O2 Ireland did a Wimax trial in Donegal three years ago, and yet I don't see any evidence of them using Wimax at all at the moment while HSDPA is on a big rollout.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that over here at least Wimax is no great shakes and HSDPA is gonna get faster too and is where it's at.

SCOTT'S REPLY: Well, that in itself is useful -- knowing how WiMax works in a real situation. Very interesting. And the one thing the iPhone could have going for it here -- if the WiMax that comes here is really that fast -- it may take a while for WiMax to built up and not as much time for AT&T to roll out its 700 MHz coverage. Should be a big race to see who dominates first, although the iPhone has a lot going for it now.

Great information, Pat. Thanks for taking the time to share it with the community.

The plot seems to thicken a little every day. Eric's article is good and informative. Tough assignment to stay ahead of the curve for Apple....or anybody in this fast changing space.

SCOTT'S REPLY: Definitely a stressful sector to work in, that's for sure.

This is Sprint you are talking about. They have never done anything right or carried anything through to completion.

This will just be another example of their incompetence. I live in Kansas City, their HQ, and we have awful coverage from their current network.

Yep. It will be a bust.

SCOTT'S REPLY: But, Brock, there's one key piece you are neglecting to mention ... it's not Sprint that worries me at all here. It's Google. It's the power of Google -- a company that's bent on controlling media and how we consume it -- and a company that has bazillions of dollars to achieve that goal ... combine that with Android and a pretty slick design team and, well, that's the source of my worry. I consider Sprint to be the background player in all of this, to be completely honest.

All this race for speed is all good i guess. Over here in Singapore, the govt is in the midst of a tender exercise that is going wire up the whole country with "next generation" high speed fibre-optics that will be used for everything from internet connection to on-demand tv to whatever else you can think of.

But does anyone know which is the "better" technology. There were rumblings about deploying/testing Wi-Max here previously but nothing came out of it. I guess fibre-optics won the day.

SCOTT'S REPLY: What amazes me too is thinking about what the technology landscape will look like in 5 years. So completely different that what we are looking at and talking about now. Heck, by then, I expect the iPhone will be installed permanently in our ears and that will replace the bluetooth headset!

To try to answer your question, WiMax is supposedly faster, but as Pat in Ireland points out, that's not necessarily the case, unless the WiMax there is being dialed down, just as the DSL and cable companies do here with less speed for less money ... but the key with WiMax is that it blankets an entire area like Wi-Fi, however, 3G should do the same thing. So it's hard to say necessarily, which is better. The WiMax deal here is all about speed. Or so they say.

Scott,
Thanks for linking to my piece and furthering this dialogue. I like the iPhone as much as the next guy--well, maybe not as much as you--but I'm very excited about what we're going to see in mobile phones in general the rest of this year. It should be a very busy time in terms of innovation, both in hardware and software. I think it's fair to say that much of this innovation derives directly from what Apple has done with the iPhone. I have little doubt the fine engineers that work at Apple will continue to be at the forefront of mobile innovation.

SCOTT"S REPLY: They'd better stay at the forefront, Eric. This blog wouldn't be nearly as cool if I had to change the name to iWiMax, therefore I blog. But seriously, I agree ... people are trying to keep up. They want something that's bigger and better and they think there's still time to unseat Apple from the phone throne. (phone throne ... I like that). I wonder if the 3G iPhone is going to be more than just 3G as we know it now ... will Safari make it faster? There are so many little pieces that are still unknown that I wish we could be privy to.

I'm glad to further the dialogue. Things are going to get even more interesting and I for one can't wait.

Android is a vaporware! And more importantly it is following iPhone. When iPhone 2 comes out in a month, Android developers will know they have a lot more things to be copied.

SCOTT'S REPLY: Well, I'm not sure it's vaporware ... I think there are some pretty creative minds at Google. Sure, there will be overlap, but I don't see Google as a company that copies. I see Google as a company that innovates. Now Microsoft? They got copying down to a science.

Not to worry. Good article in the WSJ today which explains:

WiMax is iffy because it is so far off-2 to 4 years; all the players are competitors, and Verizon and ATT are going with something called LTE, which means Long Term Evolution.

The final result should be interesting because it is all in such flux.

SCOTT'S REPLY: Well, if it's truly 2-4 years off, then I'm not concerned. Yeah, LTE looks awesome and if AT&T can get that out before Sprint gets Wi-Max up and running, then, yeah ... nothing to see here.

Speed isn't everything. The smart phone still needs to be, well, smart! Oh and not look like square black brick. It's not just one thing that makes the iPhone so great - it's the combination of everything.

I imagine those folk who have finished working on iPhone 2 are already working on 3 and plotting 4.

SCOTT'S REPLY: Exactly right, Kim. Speed is just a part of it. But we deserve an iPhone that's at least a little more future proof than what we have now ... we have a cool device but it's missing some big features. I'm hoping the next iPhone ... and 3 and 4 ... addresses all of them.

I agree with Kim, above. Part of Apple's pixie dust is that they don't rely solely on engineering solutions. They understand appeal. Sex appeal, touch appeal, culture appeal, look appeal. It's part of their DNA. Heck, they even made the iPhone work, DESPITE their partnership with AT&T (I'm a Verizon wireless fan) I'm not afraid for Apple. I just am hoping that they hit it outta the park on functional appeal with the new software updates, App Store, and the 3G model.

SCOTT'S REPLY: Me, too, Michael. When Apple released the iPhone, it knew it had a hit pretty much despite the functionality because it was pretty and whatever it was missing, the sex appeal and popularity and touchscreen made up for it. But the marketplace has changed in less than a year. People want the coolness of the iPhone and they want all the pieces that come along with that -- the pieces that other cell phones offer. They want the higher network speed. They want GPS. They want video. They don't want to walk around with a device where they have to say -- oh, it doesn't do that, but did you see what happens when I turn it on its side? The screen moves! The bells and whistles have to be more than just bells and whistles for Apple to stay competitive and I truly believe that Steve Jobs knows that. He has to.

Clearwire will be running the show, not Sprint.

SCOTT'S REPLY: Yes, but it still has to deal with Sprint the carrier if it wants its vision to succeed.

Sprint as a partner puts a crimp in the deal

SCOTT'S REPLY: Hopefully they are prepared to be at the forefront of this, because they'll need to be.

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