Tuesday, May 27, 2008 -- 10:35 p.m. -- at my desk

Judges? I'm sorry. That answer is incorrect.

If these "analysts" would do their homework, I wouldn't have to be so negative toward them.

The New York Times has a story about the next iPhone in Wednesday's edition -- actually, nothing new at all ... just a roundup of what's been said here and everywhere else a million times. But if it's in the New York Times, well, it must be news.

But then there's an analyst from an Charter Equity Research and, well, let me just say, the Charter folks seem to really be missing a step when it comes to their opinions on Apple.

This analyst says two things that are just plain wrong.

The first is that Steve Jobs is going to have a tough, tough time getting to 10 million iPhones sold in 2008. This comes just before the story mentions that the only major countries without an iPhone distribution agreement are Japan, China and Russia.

And second, and perhaps the one that is still making me scratch my head, is this regarding the impending move to 3G technology:

“Subscribers don’t care what the radio interface of their cellular phone is."

Are you kidding me? This guy really said that. He really said that people don't care about EDGE vs. 3G. I think people do care, because people are smart enough to know that one is outdated technology and one is pretty fast. In fact, some even argue that both are outdated. To say that people don't care about the radio interface of their cellular telephone is off on so many levels.

First of all, everyone knows that the iPhone isn't just a phone. They care about it because the speed of the network directly impacts their ability to communicate.

Here's the link to the story. There's nothing wrong with the story itself, but I don't understand why papers as big as the Times choose to talk to these analysts who know nothing about Apple.

Contact me. Contact anyone else. Just contact someone who knows.

Feel free to discuss in the comments.

Thanks for calling.

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Since Vodafone released their annual earnings today --- I'll use it as an example.

Out of 110 million Vodafone's subscribers in Europe (most of them in 4 countries: UK, Germany, Spain and Italy) --- only 24 million subscribers have a 3G device (it's in their preliminary annual earnings report released today). And we are talking about UK (which is the center of the European mobile universe) and Italy (which has the highest 3G penetration rate in the world).

http://www.vodafone.com/etc/medialib/attachments/preliminary_results.Par.50962.File.dat/Prelim_%20Mar_08_FINAL.pdf

Out of Verizon Wireless' 67.2 million subscribers, 58% (or 39 million millions) have a 3G phone.

http://www.telecomdirectnews.com/do.php/150/30395

Europeans don't care enough for 3G to actually buy a 3G phone. Americans don't even know that even the cheapest Verizon phones are all 3G phones.

SCOTT'S REPLY: Great info, Jennifer, but ... you say Europeans don't care enough for 3G to actually buy a 3G phone. But don't you see the iPhone changing that attitude? I do.

First of all, it's the Times! 'Nuff said - remember Jason Blair?

The Guessing Game has begun? A day late and a dollar short.

2nd-I may be wrong, but I thought Jobs said 10 million by the end of 2008, which I took to mean since 6/07. But, like I said, I could be wrong. If he is selling 600,000 a month that's over 7 million just for this year. That's only counting current sales in countries with iPhone agreements. Not the countries who have made agreements with Apple since the first of the year. So, add those sales in and you could easily top 10 million.

3. Yes, the average Joe who just wants a free phone for calls and text doesn't have a clue about the network. But anyone who wants more than that does know the difference and the iPhone has had a lot to do with opening people's eyes.

Of course subscribers will care - they want to surf and talk at the same time, clear YouTube videos, OTA downloads. And I do believe 3G gives better voice quality.

As far as Nokia's sales - well, look how long they've been in business and how many markets they are in. Are they talking about smart or feature phones, or those giveaways?? Big difference.

The man needs to stop drinking the KoolAid. Most of us have moved on from that period in our lives

Gosh, all these analysts are so doom and gloom I'd hate to be married to one of them.

SCOTT'S REPLY: Yes, I thought the number was also 10 million by the end of 2008 and that took into account sales from the start in 2007.

Well, Scott, if I were that Charter Equity clown's mother (which, by the way, I'm not) I might cut him just a bit of semantic slack by agreeing with his contention that nobody cares about EDGE vs. 3G. Why? Because It's not about the network but what's FASTER and more reliable -- whether EDGE or 3G or some other technology marvel. I just want something that gets me ever so closer to my idea of iPhone nirvana. If they call it 'banana peel sidewalk', well, so be it! And if Banana Peel Sidewalk is better, faster than 3G then I want it. But, really, it's an imbicile statement -- the guy's from Charter Equity -- that only a mother could love. I give it two thumbs down and a boot down the chute (and so should his boss)

SCOTT'S REPLY: Michael, I could not have possibly said that better.

Can I just say that of course us Europeans care about 3G and the speeds and coverage we get. Here in Ireland there is really quite extraordinary coverage and good speeds provided by O2 Ireland because they know we care and soon almost all phones will be 3G. Even two years ago 3G coverage was limited to a couple of tiny blobs in the three main cities but now you can get 3G up mountains, in the bog, and even at the proverbial arse-end of nowhere.

24 million is a hell of a lot of people with 3G devices already, and that's only Vodafone - perhaps a third or less of the European market. And I'm not one of them, although soon I will be if Steve can sort it out for me. We can't be expecting every single person in Europe to buy a smartphone - lots of people can't afford the handset or subscription, some people just want to talk and text. Anecdotally in my experience here in Ireland many people over the age of 40 have never heard of YouTube, while 100% of people under 25 use it all the time. So when that demographic takes over you can be expecting everyone to be looking for a 3G-type device.

How long is it now til June 9th?

SCOTT'S REPLY: Excellent insight into habits in Ireland, Pat. Your post is an example of reason No. 1 why this community thrives the way it does -- we learn from each other.

Oh, and about how long it is until June 9? I think Steve releases something into the air in early May each year that slows down time so it feels like an eternity.

Well, it seems that Europeans care a lot about mobile phones with a high quality camera (with a flash).

If the 3G iphone doesn't come with a flash for the camera --- then apple we have a problem.

SCOTT'S REPLY: I'm hoping, Jennifer, that Steve and Co. learned a lot in the last year. I think they have. I think it starts with exclusive deals -- they realized that what works in one country doesn't work in every country and that flexibility is the name of the game. That said, I hope they learned that a phone that looks cool isn't enough and that it needs features like a flash for the camera.

Perhaps this is just a matter of semantics, but I literally agree with the analyst: few people care about the type of radio in their phone. What users *do* care about is speed. Does the phone radio impact speed? But of course it does. However, how many people remember that recent comparison of iPhone/Edge to some-other-brand/3G where the iPhone actually surfed a smidge faster? There is more to final speed than just the radio.

If he had said "Mobile phone users don't care how fast their phones surf and pull mail," I would agree that position is untenable. I do think only enthusiasts are actually following radio/network upgrades and, as in most things technology-related, enthusiasts make up a small but vocal percentage of the user base.

SCOTT'S REPLY: I don't argue with that logic, Mitch, but the analyst basically said that people don't care about a phone with 3G in it. Perhaps he should have worded it a different way if he wanted to be totally objective.

I bought the iPhone because it was THE iPhone, I loved the design and idea of a revolutionary concept/phone. Boy was I wrong!!
It turns out that the iPhone is not only a revolutionary device, it's starting to change the way the European wireless operators think.

Before the iPhone, we used to have the standard services (voice, sms) a bit of data coupled with MMS and that was it, the prices were extremely high for every data bit sent/received. 3G was worse, terrible service and price/kb was too expensive (even with the special rates offered).

In Italy people buy 3G phones for 3 main reasons,
(1) The handsets are subsidized (GSM handsets are'nt)
(2) The 3G handsets are hackable (they crack them so that they work with regular GSM SIM cards)
(3) Status symbol (Italians go figure) ;)

With the iPhone (in France at least) the prices on regular handsets and price/kb started to drop, Orange is offering unlimited data transfer on EDGE (limiting the speed after 500MB where in the past they would've asked for more money) other providers have started to offer similar deals.
I think that with a 3G iPhone coupled with the services would help people migrate to 3G faster.

SCOTT'S REPLY: You, Gil, have got it. That's absolutely right ... it's changing not only minds, but mindsets as well.

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