Friday, May 30, 2008 -- 5:48 p.m. -- on my couch

Look out, here's a story from the Associated Press on how badly the iPhone is doing and how the amazing job RIM and Palm are doing.

But whatever ... I expect that crap from the AP. But I love this headline on CNN's site -- not sure if AP wrote it or if it's CNN's, but it's this:

Apple carries just 19.2% of first-quarter U.S. smartphone sales

HA! Just 19.2%. Oh that's horrible. Yes, it's down from 26.7% of smartphones sold in Q4 of 2007, which included holiday shopping, but I don't think 19.2% is anything to worry about.

Yeah, it will get play because it's from the AP and all the RIM and Palm fans will say they rule the world. Truth is, the 3G iPhone is going to be a game changer -- solely based on where the phone is available, well, that should send that 19.2% number into the stratosphere.

RIM, well, I think RIM will hold its own, despite losing serious ground to the iPhone. Palm? Please stop making me laugh.

I think that anyone who thinks they are immune from Apple's push to change mobile phones as we know it deserve whatever they get. ... and maybe the people who report these stories for the AP and other mainstream media sources can actually put this in perspective rather than just report and regurgitate numbers.

That's my opinion. What's yours?

Thanks for calling.

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Both this survey and the Canalys' report of iphone getting 28% market share in Q4 --- have a major flaw. It's based on vendor survey (the AP article on the IDC survey) or shipment numbers (Canalys).

Canalys' 28% iphone market share in the US "converged devices" is based on 2 million iphones shipped in the christmas quarter. However, AT&T only activated 900,000 iphones in that quarter --- so a 28% market share suddenly becomes a 14% market share.

It took 4 months and 3 weeks for the AT&T CFO to announce an additional 500,000 iphone activation. So a Q1 activation number would look like 315,000 iphones.

If Apple has a 19.2% market, it would mean that the overall US smartphone market for Q1 is 1.64 million smartphones. But I think that IDC was not using those figures.

Did you find the data released in the report rather disappointingly lacking? I did. (At least in the InfoWorld writeup of the report that I found.)

Are the percentages reported of units shipped, or of sales in dollars?

And it would have been worthwhile to know the total number of units, instead of just the percentages.

But at least InfoWorld had the sense to remind its readers that many consumers may just be holding off, waiting for the 3G iPhone. (Or, as I like to call it, the Incredibly Freaking Obvious.)

I think RIM and Palm know better. None of these momentary stats speaks to the buzz, building market anticipation and likely momentum that Apple's achieved in an alarmingly (to them) rapid rate. The scariest thing is how abrupt the game changed and how RIM and Palm are finding themselves in a different terrain. These guys/gals are wearing wingtips in an urban engagement. They got dressed for the wrong party, folks! Have a great, well deserved vacation, Scott!

Year over year, Palm's share of the market was down from 23 percent to 13.4% and RIM's from 48.7% to 44.5%. As both the Centro and the Curve are being offered for just $99 at the moment - a giveaway price compared to the iPhone - I think the iPhone's achievement is spectacular. Both Palm and RIM have been forced to go down-market to achieve these sales, presumably because they cannot compete with the iPhone at the top end.

Personaly I think the smart phone companys are just scared of whats next to come...They know that everything is gonna start going down hill for them. I mean really, who wants to spend like half an hour to figure out how to do something on a palm when you can just pick up the iPhone and just push a button and it's done.

Mobile Enterprise may feel further Apple presence, when you pair iPhone's strong starting position v RIM with recent news: its new SDK-borne productivity tools + ownership of me.com (Mobile Enterprise?).

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