Tuesday, April 1, 2008 -- 9:14 p.m. -- at my desk

There's some real Apple news on this April Fool's day and everyone is talking about the continued shortages of iPhones at Apple stores across the country and online.

Piper Jaffray came out today and said that must mean that the 3G iPhone is around the corner.

I don't think so. I don't think it's coming right now. I think the shortage has to do with production issues and just overall popularity. The 3G iPhone is coming, but there's no indication that it's coming right now. June or October is more likely.

According to Piper Jaffray and Bloomberg, at least 20 of Apple's 180 stores in the U.S. are out of iPhones and the online Appe store posts a waiting period of 5 to 7 days.

Apple, which would never comment on an impending launch anyway, didn't argue the fact that iPhones are a little hard to come by.

"We are working to replenish iPhone supplies as quickly as we can," Apple spokesman Steve Dowling said. "Our stores continue to receive shipments almost every day."

I've said in this blog before that I think there's reasons why Apple would choose to release the iPhone in June and reasons pointing to October.

June would come alongside the big WWDC - developer's conference -- and the 3G iPhone would then share the spotlight with what should be a finalized SDK and release of thousands of applications in Apple's new and previously announced iTunes App store.

October would give Apple more time to work on the next generation handset and give folks plenty of time to line up to buy for the holiday season.

Either way, I just don't see a compelling reason for Apple to release the 3G iPhone this soon.

Could I be wrong? Of course I could. Do I hope I am? In a way, because the sooner the 3G iPhone gets here, the sooner Apple hits its self-imposed goal of 10 million iPhones sold in 2008. And the sooner Apple can release the iPhone in other countries, many of which are waiting for the 3G version before signing on.

Only time will tell what's going on with the distribution channels. Of course, I'll be watching this like a hawk.

Let me know what your thoughts are.

Thanks for calling.

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If Apple does nothing in anticipation of G3 services at this point in time a fair proportion of potential customers will hold off for the new hardware and services to become available.

Right now, if Apple incorporates 3G services in the EDGE hardware there will be no reason to hold off, even if service plans are not ready.

Personally I see a new model next week or even today but I am unclear as to how this has FCC approval at this stage.

SCOTT'S REPLY: I'm not clear on the FCC rules either. I don't think the head of the FCC is clear on the rules, but I digress. I do know that Apple can request some sort of secret status so a filing for a new iPhone doesn't get out. It did that with the original iPhone. But that doesn't mean that's happened in this case, but unless there's a fast track approval process, something needs to be in the works if we are going to see a 3G iPhone soon -- whether in June or in the fall.

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