Wednesday, March 26, 2008 -- 12:25 p.m. -- on my couch

I think if Shakespeare was alive that he'd write on a MacBook Pro (not Air) at the London Apple Store and write letters to Steve Jobs.

That patient merit of the unworthy takes, when he himself might his quietus make. Fondly, William S.

And Apple would write back.

Dear William S, Thank you for contacting Apple. We cannot discuss previously unannounced products. Please check our Web site at www.apple.com for the latest news.

Well, Bill, here's some good news.

There is a 3G iPhone in development. I think the 3G iPhone was probably in development before the first model came out on June 29. Apple always is thinking about the next product as they are working on the current. They have to.

Imagine what would happen if they didn't.

The scene would be a room full of people who worked on the iPhone. Steve Jobs at the front, cutting the cake, telling everyone how great they did. Cheers, applause as the giant video screen shows incredible closeups of the registers at the New York Fifth Avenue store.

And then silence.

Silence because they realize that once the hoopla dies down -- which of course will last a lot longer than your general hoopla but not forever -- there's nothing behind it. And no creative company can afford to go that route. So there always has to be a plan in the pipeline.

And then the question becomes ... what's the shape of this pipeline? How far along are we?

In the case of the 3G iPhone, we're far along but we're not at the end. We're nearing completion and we've made strides, but plenty of folks have almost certainly been sent back to the drawing board to work on their piece of the pipe.

Pipes aside, the 3G iPhone is in development. Whether or not it comes in June at WWDC or in time for the holidays is still anyone's guess.

In a June scenario, the 3G iPhone is welcomed along side a powerful SDK. People rush out to buy new, thinner, brighter, more vibrant iPhones with double the battery life. They go home and download thousands of programs on it, millions of songs and all is right with the world. (and later that afternoon, some blogs start talking about the 4G iPhone (not this one)).

In a fall scenario, the stage belongs to the SDK in June. People want the 3G iPhone but settle for thousands of programs on their current model. Apple holds a press conference after Labor Day, announces a 3G iphone with all of the amazement in scenario 1 and says it ships Nov. 1. Plenty of time to create mass lines at retail stores around the world and still get the new toy under the tree or next to the menorah in time for the holidays.

As you can plainly see, both scenarios have good to them. In scenario 2, Apple has time to perfect what's likely to be a simply amazing successor to iPhone 1.0. In scenario 1, people who have been waiting for a 3G iPhone since 1993 and people in countries where 3G is more accepted than the U.S. let out a collective sigh of relief that increases global warming by 25 percent in a single day. (and with Al Gore on Apple's board, he's probably not going to get behind that!)

And then we're back to the question I get from about 100 callers a day -- buy now or wait? Do you see why it's so hard for me to answer that with any kind of clarity? Ultimately, if I was sitting here without an iPhone right now, besides not having this blog, I also wouldn't enjoy my mobile life, which I never enjoyed before June 29, 2007, and I've been using cell phones since they stretched out my pockets and added 2 pounds to the scale.

And we'll save the coverage and price of 3G for another post. And whether or not a 3G iPhone will have EDGE. And much more. Soon. Soon.

In the meantime, share your comments. I want to know what you're thinking. Tell me what's on your mind. (There are some things you just can't hide).

Thanks for calling.

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well all I know if a 3G iphone comes out this summer, I personally will be very devasted. I'm way to happy with my current 8GB. I think is way too soon for me to see 3G out since I've had this one since Late December. I think depending on how great 3G is I will either buy it (can't afford one right now unless there is and upgrade plan) or wait till 4 generation iPhone when everything by then will be much more developed and everyone including third party developers and complanies will be much more involved. I think 4 generation iPhone will be the new it for me.

SCOTT'S REPLY: I wonder what else will come to the phone other than 3G -- battery life, thinner and what else? Should be very interesting.

Random question on the Enterprise functions of 2.0. I work at a large insurance company and use outlook at work. Will I be able to push my email to my iphone no matter what firewalls/security my employer has or will they have "allow" it?
Thanks for having this blog, it is great!

SCOTT'S REPLY: Hi, Michael. Thanks for the kind words. Anything enterprise will require the help of your IT department, so unfortunately, the firewalls and security will be what blocks you unless your IT department allows the iPhone on the network.

I'm sure the 3G iPhone will be ready by late June. It will have to be paired up with the first SDK apps. That should cause a great demand for consumers, corporate users and gamers to purchase iPhones. It should also be well in time for the Beijing Olympics (providing Apple can hook up with a carrier).

This summer will be an interesting time for iPhone users and Apple investors. I'm hoping that the iPhone will come with two cameras so it can do videoconferencing. That's the icing on the cake. Guess were gonna be looking at long lines again at the Apple stores this summer.

If Apple uses the 3G Broadcom chip, it will have backwards compatibility with EDGE.

SCOTT"S REPLY: All earlier signs pointed to the Broadcom chip, so I am hoping for compatibility with EDGE. I would be a little surprised if everything was ironed out with China in enough time to get it for the Olympics, but crazier things have happened.

A thought I spent today at an Apple Pro Series event in London.

Enquired if mac osx server will be able to manage the deployment/requirements of a mobile platform. An engineer doing his best not to breach Apple's stated policy on not commenting on unannounced products, could only say watch out for an interesting wwdc in June!

In all the time spent speculating on iphone 2.0 have we all taken our eyes off the ball in considering how else Apple may leverage it's expertise in managing its software and hardware platforms and what else osx leopard server may have in store.

SCOTT'S REPLY: Absolutely true. Sometimes it's even hard to believe there's anything to speculate on other than the iPhone

:-D

I want an iPhone. I was and am an AT&T subscriber. I will not buy a 2G iPhone.

I love the device's capabilities and promise. The iPhone and Helio's devices seem to me to be the only devices getting carrier-supported updates, revisions, updates, and enhancements. Buy an Ocean or an iPhone today, and you'll have more, bigger, better tomorrow.

I absolutely can't stand AT&T's use of the AMR-HR voice codec on their 2G phones. In Portland, OR and about 150 miles around, garbled cell phone calls are more the norm than not. I'm using a hacked RAZR V3xx (to defeat AMR-HR) - voice is the most important feature of a cell phone to me. Most 3G phones seem to not have too many voice issues - go to HOFO and read up.

I'm about ready to sign a new contract, and I'll be getting a Moto Q9h or the new Z9. I can hack them so I can hear the party on the other end, and vice versa. Get an iPhone out there that doesn't use AMR-HR - 2G or 3G - and I'll buy it.

SCOTT"S REPLY: I'll admit to not being too up on AMR-HR, but you've certainly piqued my curiosity.

Isn't Apple's planned implementation of Exchange Active Sync on the iPhone more of a "pure" implementation of the Microsoft's technology than Blackberry's? If so, what IT department in its right mind wouldn't allow it to be used? Doesn't Blackberry charge corporate IT for every Blackberry user?

SCOTT'S REPLY: On the surface, Tim, it seems like an absolute win-win for IT departments for that very reason.

I am lucky to be surrounded by ATT's 3G network, but have never used it because of course I never had a 3G phone. What can I expect from it when I buy my new 3G iPhone?

SCOTT'S REPLY: Same here, so I can't say for sure, but I did talk to someone at work who has a 3G phone on AT&T's network and he said it's the fastest phone he's ever used. He said he's blown away with how it works. If that is any indication of what the iPhone will be like, well, it's just so exciting.

Personally, I'm waiting on 3G, but mostly for "future-proofing." I know full well that if I bought a current-generation iPhone, Apple would begin shipping 3G iPhones 15 days later (so that I just miss the "trade-in period") and AT&T would announce that they have built out their 3G network to work in my back yard.

Unfortunately, for my killer app to work, I need the ability to run daemons. So I might have a wait beyond 3G...

SCOTT'S REPLY: Well if that's what it takes to get Apple to release an iPhone 15 days from now, then you should get buying Peter! :-D

I am in like two minds about returning my current iPhone and waiting for the new one in the fall. I can wait.....thats not the problem. The problem is I saw a video on YouTube that has 3G BlackJack and the iPhone head to head on internet loading. The iPhone beat the 3G by 5 seconds. So is 3G even fast, or worth the hype? Do you know the transfer speeds on both? I'm only going to wait because iPhone 2 will have two cameras and video.....maybe AT&T goes "ok we'll include MMS on the second" that will def. suck for the people now......

SCOTT'S REPLY: Ok, here's the unofficial line on the 3G iPhone's speed. The speed is not only dependent on the network, but also the advanced browser.

Case in point. I have a T-Mobile MDA that works on EDGE. Theoretically, that browsing experience should be the same or near the same as the iPhone using EDGE. It takes the T-Mobile MDA about 4 times as long to load anything. It's Safari that makes it faster as well. I think that the 3G iPhone will blow everything else up until now completely out of the water.

I'm guessing Steve has three product generations always cooking. So, when iPhone ver1 was being released, versions 2 and 3 were already in development, nascent as it may be. The reason why, is because Steve owned Pixar, and they had 2 movies in development behind whatever was currently about to be released. So, when the Incredibles was released, they had Cars and Ratatouille on the drawing boards.

SCOTT'S REPLY: it makes total sense that it would be that way. And if you read all those articles about the road to iPhone 1.0, Steve sent it back and back and back until he got just what he wanted. He doesn't have to deliver iPhone 2.0 until he's good and ready.

A 3G-only phone would work in Europe, etc, where everything is 3G, but in the U.S. it would be worthless if you travel, since AT&T only has it in a few major cities, not even covering the entire city. Here in Oklahoma they turned on three towers 6 months ago in Tulsa and Oklahoma City but haven't done a thing since then. In rural areas they are still trying to increase the 1G digital service to equal the old analog coverage area.

SCOTT'S REPLY: True, true, but remember this, Glenn. AT&T announced a few months ago that they are working on a big expansion of its 3G network. That would undoubtedly coincide with any kind of Apple announcement because Steve Jobs said one of the original reasons he didn't go for 3G is the lack of coverage (although methinks it had much more to do with battery life than coverage).

So that doesn't mean that Oklahoma won't get some 3G love, but then again, you are right ... it might go to places that are larger. AT&T did say the top 100 metro areas would be better covered after the expansion. I'm not sure where Oklahoma cities rank in the top 100.

I'm one who just purchased an iPhone despite the increased chatter about a soon-to-arrive 3G version. Two things delayed my purchase of an iPhone (the first more restricting than the other): I had to wait for my Verizon Wireless contract to run out and I had to weigh the value of having the 1.0 NOW over the 2.0 WHENEVER it hits the market. As I thought about it, I decided that my personal frame of reference on this purchase just couldn't be dependent on an uncertain arrival of new technology. My framework is based on what is currently available. I'm as excited as the next person about the prospects of the new 3G and other rumored features, but just like my lottery winnings, it hasn't arrived yet. Yes, the 3G (2.0) is a sure thing unlike my lottery millions but the timing is still uncertain. So, given what is currently available, I made my decision and will stand by it for at least 1 year. If after one year or so, and the dust has settled (assuming 2.0 has been released!), the 2.0 REALLY blows my 16GB 1.0 away and it adds the sort of value I'm seeking in my iPhone, I'll trade up. But I'll never look back. I love this thing!

SCOTT'S REPLY: Michael, I'm not sure how I could have stated what you just said better. It's what I always say ... you can wait and wait and wait but the time you spend waiting is another day that you don't get to enjoy the iPhone, as you clearly found out.

Maybe this example would make the point of my earlier post a bit better: Say you're going to take a roadtrip, in your case Chicago-LA, Route 66-style (great trip by the way) using I-55, 44, and 40. The only places your 3G-only iPhone would work along the entire route currently are St. Louis, Tulsa, and Oklahoma City. It would be doornail dead everywhere else, the longest stretch being the 1500 miles OKC-LA. If you never leave the Top 100 cities, fine & dandy, but if you travel at all, 3G-only is worthless.

SCOTT'S REPLY: True, but partially. I would expect the 3G iPhone to default to EDGE in all non 3G areas. Now while that's less than ideal for a true 3G experience for the entire trip (that does sound like fun!) you'd at least have coverage. This is similar to when digital was new and you'd fall back to analog outside the major cities.

Hey Scott...thanks for the blog!

I love my iphone now....but I'm sure i'll be one of the millions of people storming castle apple to get the 3G verion...do think we'll be able to trade it in for any kind of discount? Or does my current phone have a future date with ebay?

Thanks!

SCOTT'S REPLY: Hi, Paul. Unless your iPhone is less than 14 days old, there won't be a trade-in program. It's just not something that Apple does. But don't discount ebay -- even when the new version comes out, everyone will still want the original -- especially in places where they can't get it officially.

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